Why Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Katrina Jennings
Katrina Jennings

A seasoned automation engineer with over a decade of experience in optimizing industrial processes and mentoring future innovators.