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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.