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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|