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Current surveys reveal that nearly 40% of Spanish men who are 18 to 34 years old plan to support Vox. Vox earned its first seat in the national legislature in 2019 and is currently experiencing renewed growth. Its growing influence has expanded beyond a trend limited to male supporters: a fifth of young women express intent to vote for Vox, with the largest rise occurring among the youngest voters.

Shifting Political Allegiances

It appears that the younger you are in contemporary Spain, the higher the probability you will support a party that champions, in addition to various stances, the large-scale removal of migrants to maintain “national identity”, the restriction of abortion, euthanasia and LGBTQ+ protections, the dismantling of the European Union’s institutions and the opposition to measures to tackle the environmental emergency. Senior citizens remain loyal to the dominant parties, the socialist PSOE and the centre-right Popular party (PP). Senior women and over represent the largest group opposing far-right ideologies. Catalonia is the exception: backing for regional far-right movements is spread across older generations additionally.

Explaining the Shift

Due to its 20th-century history, the country was considered immune to the growing influence of the populist right. This unique status is no longer true, but why is there Vox’s growing appeal with younger voters of younger Spanish voters? There are several contributory factors, but two particular crises, poorly managed by the major parties, seem to have eroded mainstream support: the catastrophic Valencia deluges last year and blazes over the summer in several Spanish provinces. Spain’s quasi-federal system simplifies the process to place responsibility both to the left-leaning national government and to the conservative-led regional governments. Meanwhile, ethical lapses have stained both main parties.

What Matters to the Electorate

Spain's most recent national vote was in 2023 and the main issues raised by Vox supporters at the time involved immigration and “politicians themselves”.

Statistics regarding under-35 voters isn't comprehensive, but polling shows that real estate affordability dominates for the broader society and particularly for those below 35. Salaries, work and daily costs are cited as well. Immigration is rarely noted as an concern for youth. But the view of politicians as the issue, which was the second major concern for Vox voters in 2023, is common among all age groups. Researchers observe that the party has gained trendiness among young people drawn to the “anti-establishment” image that the group successfully promotes – much like left-wing and centrist groups managed in the past.

Financial Challenges

The nation's finances is notable in the EU for its economic growth and ranks highly in the developed nations. But it isn't benefiting a significant portion, especially youth who join the workforce in urban centers like Barcelona.

Addressing the housing crisis is the key challenge for younger people, who are financially worse off than previous generations mainly because of the high cost of renting or buying homes in the metropolitan areas. Pay is insufficient relative to international standards. In the last twenty years, seniors are now more affluent than the young, particularly those with children, as research indicates. Quality of life has risen in so many ways – the country is wealthier, more modern, more tolerant and more secure. But age-group friction is increasing as the economic growth has slowed at the same pace as in the previous decades.

Political Culture and Public Perception

What else can the mainstream political class do – particularly on the left, which usually enjoyed the backing from liberal youth? An evident approach would be to confront the current political norms and stop bickering. Politicians, particularly from PSOE and PP, expend considerable effort, day in day out, to exchanging insults it is no wonder they face voter skepticism, and sometimes derision.

Usually this remains background static amid daily routines. But a voter reaction is evident when these frequently theatrical disputes flares during or in response to a significant disaster. Yet it is now hard to identify an official from PSOE or PP in national and regional government – those with ultimate duty – willing to pause before targeting adversaries, even when the facts are still unclear.

The Valencia Situation

Regarding Valencia, there is a straightforward example the right-wing local administration needs to address. It's concerning that they still hold power a one year following botching disaster warnings during the floods. National authorities appropriately points out the local government's failures and its neglect of the climate crisis, which is transforming the country while the far-right (and now the PP) redirect public discourse. But are daily arguments necessary for each issue?

The Cost of Political Culture

Such behavior might gain votes for now, but it's demonstrating a dangerous path.

PSOE officials frequently claim leaders vary, and that’s true. But it’s hard to persuade voters that there are distinct ideological divides when so many in prominent roles appear identical on online channels.

The nation's parties are notoriously hard to change. But it has happened previously. Pedro Sánchez enacted change inside the PSOE, and progressive new parties managed to break bipartisanship and for a time looked set to define the future. Hopeful change might be difficult currently, but the alternative seems dismal.