‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Government Stance

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.